Last year the economic forecasting firm Fiserv predicted that home values would sink around 5% in 2011, and that prices in three-quarters of the nation’s major metro areas would fall. The bad news is, the firm wasn’t that far off the mark. The good news: In the coming year, Fiserv thinks 95% of the 384 metro areas it tracks will see prices rise.
Don’t expect the market to move much beyond first gear, though. The median expectation among more than 100 economists and real estate pros surveyed by MacroMarkets is that home values will inch ahead by a mere 0.25%, compared to their 2011 median forecast decline of 2.8%. They also foresee annualized gains through 2015 of just 1.1%, as the real estate market slowly works its way through a mountain of foreclosures.
Those foreclosures will continue to weigh on the market. According to Core- Logic, there are 5.4 million homes that are for sale or part of the market’s “shadow inventory” — which includes bank-owned properties, homes in the foreclosure pipeline that haven’t hit the market yet, or properties where owners are seriously behind on payments.
To put that in perspective, Freddie Mac forecasts that only 4.8 million homes will be purchased in all of 2012. A market with six months of inventory is considered healthy. That there’s more than a year’s worth of housing stock now tells you what a tough slog this will still be. “It’s analogous to a flood,” says Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist. “The water is very deep in the living room, but it’s no longer getting deeper and is starting to recede.
Full Story Via Cnn
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